When the mobile dating app Tinder debuted on American college campuses in 2012, it was an instant hit. Online dating has been around since 1995, when Match.com, a website for the lonely soul, launched, but it has long struggled to shed its doomed image. But Tinder has made it easy and fun, allowing users to sift through countless potential dates’ photos with a simple swipe.
Soon, Tinder and its rivals changed their courtship. A Pew Research Center report released last year found that 30% of American adults have used an online dating service, including more than half of those between the ages of 18 and 29. One in five couples of the same age met through such services. Usage soared during the pandemic as lonely single people in lockdown sought a partner. Tinder rival Bumble’s market cap soared to $13 billion on its first day of trading in February 2021. Later that year, Match Group, which owns Tinder, Hinge, and numerous other dating services, was valued at nearly $50 billion. Roughly 350 million people around the world now have dating apps on their smartphones, up from 250 million in 2018, according to research firm Business of Apps. In June, the Tokyo government even announced it would launch its own matching app to match singles in the city.
However, these days online dating has lost its luster. These apps were downloaded 237 million times worldwide last year, down from 287 million in 2020. According to another research firm, Sensor Tower, the number of monthly active users of the six largest dating apps outside China decreased from 154 million in 2021 to 137 million in 2021. quarter of the year. (See Figure 1). Bumble reported on August 7 that its sales for the April-June quarter grew just 3% year over year, and lowered its full-year outlook to 1% to 2%. The company’s shares fell by a third in after-hours trading. On July 30, Match Group reported that its revenue for the quarter rose only 4%. The market value of both companies has skyrocketed since Bumble went public (see Figure 2). This reflects users’ increasing disillusionment with dating apps, decreasing willingness to pay and increasing interest in offline alternatives.
Let’s start with disillusionment. An app that once felt fun has become a source of frustration for many people. The network effects that initially propelled services like Tinder, which attracted more users with a wider choice of partners, are now frustrating them. Users complain about spending hours sorting through tens of thousands of profiles. Half of the women surveyed by Pew said they felt overwhelmed by the number of messages they received. It doesn’t help that 84% of Tinder users are men. So do 61% of Bumble users who are female. Many users are also worried about scams.
Young people in particular are becoming bored with apps. A survey commissioned last year by news site Axios found that only one-fifth of U.S. college students use it at least once a month. “It’s not interesting, it’s so superficial and it’s really exhausting,” laments a young influencer on the short video app TikTok. “I’m at my limit,” sums up Wunmi Williams, a 27-year-old who has been unable to find a partner on dating apps after years of swiping and matching. In a sign of growing desperation, Marriage Pact, an annual event that matches participants with “backup” spouses in case future romantic endeavors fail, has spread to 88 college campuses across the country.
All of this helps explain why dating app developers have a hard time convincing users to part with their cash, the second reason for lackluster performance. To boost profit margins, dating apps are selling paid upgrades to make up for low ad revenue. Hinge has a separate feed of popular profiles that users might like, but requires them to hand over $3.99 per “rose” before they can chat. Tinder’s paid plans range from $17.99 per month (which gives you unlimited swipes and the ability to change your location) to a hefty $499 per month (which lets you see the app’s most popular profiles, message users you don’t match with, and more). There is a wide range of options, including sending and sending.
Got it
Online dating may no longer seem hopeless, but users seem to be worried about paying for it. The proportion of people willing to spend money on dating apps is decreasing. Tinder’s paid users have declined for seven consecutive quarters. Men are more likely to cough, potentially exacerbating a common feeling among women of being bombarded with messages on apps.
But perhaps the biggest threat to the future of dating apps is the growing proportion of singles looking for love offline. Last year, some people started wearing light blue rings made by a startup called Pear to show they were open to being wooed. Thursday, a company that organizes in-person events for singles, has expanded to about 30 cities from Stockholm to Sydney. The app only works on Thursdays when the event takes place.
Romance isn’t limited to bars. Running clubs have become a gathering place for athletic people. Cooking classes are also becoming a place to find partners, says Julia Hertz, boss of ticketing platform Eventbrite. Participation in singles events increased by 42% from 2022 to 2023. “Even if it’s not the love of your life, you’re bonding with someone and gaining an experience,” says youth culture blogger Casey Lewis. About such events.
Dating apps are looking for ways to lure users back. Some people are hoping that artificial intelligence (AI) will spice things up. Bumble founder Whitney Wolfe Herd recently mused that the future of courtship could involve one person’s AI bot going on a “date” with another person’s AI bot. One new app, Volar, has started offering just that.
While society may eventually turn over matchmaking to machines, it is unlikely that this strategy will work just yet. A more fruitful approach for dating apps might be to focus on narrower markets instead. Grindr, the app for gay men, continues to grow rapidly. So is Feel, which targets polyamory. Over the past few years, Match Group has released apps aimed at gay men (Archer), single parents (Stir), ethnic minorities (BLK, Chispa), and snobs (The League). Revenue from this brand portfolio grew 17% year over year in the second quarter of 2024.
Such apps not only provide a small number of partners, but also serve as a community for like-minded people. For example, Grindr serves as a travel guide for travelers looking for gay bars and an information hub about HIV. The company says the average user sends 50 messages a day, which is about the same number as the messaging service WhatsApp sends. The company’s success in this regard explains why Bumble CEO Lydiaan Jones has said that he wants his company to be known as a “connection company, not a dating company.” I might. A rebrand like this can be difficult to pull off. However, love is never easy.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited. Published under license by The Economist. Original content available at www.economist.com.
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