Apple stock is trading at a premium, but there’s little to show for it.
apple (AAPL -0.22%) may be the world’s largest company with a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion, but that doesn’t mean it will stay that way forever. Any cracks in Apple’s armor could make it vulnerable and allow other companies to overtake it in market capitalization.
Here are three stocks that could be worth more than Apple in five years.
What’s wrong with Apple?
Apple is not the company it used to be. It used to be at the forefront of innovation, constantly releasing innovative products. That hasn’t been done for a while, and even the newest iPhone (iPhone 16) seems to struggle despite its much-touted Apple Intelligence feature.
Adding all this up means that this company won’t see any revenue growth after 2022.
Despite this, Apple’s stock commands a premium valuation, trading at 30.5 times forward earnings.
That’s a hefty price tag for a company with no growth at all, and other stocks are likely to outperform it. If you don’t show growth soon, the premium won’t be maintained.
If this happens, many other stocks could surpass Apple, and all of them are likely better investments at this point.
Nvidia and Alphabet are right next door
Here are the three companies I think can overtake Apple five years from now. Nvidia (NVDA 1.63%), microsoft (MSFT -0.39%)and alphabet (GOOG 0.07%) (Google 0.14%). These three companies round out the rest of the world’s top four major companies, so they are obvious choices.
It’s important to understand why these three companies are able to surpass Apple, as each has different reasons.
Starting with Nvidia in second place, it is trailing Apple. Apple is 5% away from reclaiming the throne and will outpace Apple due to huge demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used to create artificial intelligence (AI) models. It’s almost certain.
Despite this year’s impressive growth, Wall Street still expects revenue growth to be 42% for fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2026). That’s far more than Apple is offering, but NVIDIA trades at 47 times forward earnings, which is much higher than the price investors are paying for Apple.
It will take some time for this insurance premium to come down, but I think it will be possible within 5 years.
Microsoft is next, just 11% off the top. Microsoft has been strong, growing its revenue by more than 15% over the past year. The company is also spearheading an AI push with its cloud computing arm, Azure. The forward P/E ratio is 31.5x, which is about the same as Apple’s price.
However, Microsoft has actually seen enough growth to support this assessment. So don’t be surprised if Microsoft overtakes Apple in market capitalization as the market begins to settle into Apple’s stock trend.
While Nvidia and Microsoft could easily surpass Apple in the next few years, Alphabet’s chances are slightly less likely.
Alphabet needs support from a valuation perspective to overtake Apple
Alphabet’s lawsuit hinges on raising insurance premiums and lowering Apple’s premiums. Alphabet’s revenue growth rate over the past year has been in the low teens, far outpacing Apple’s.
However, Alphabet doesn’t command as much of a premium as Apple, trading at 21.5 times expected earnings. it is cheaper S&P500trading at a forward P/E ratio of 23.5x.
If Alphabet were to earn the same premium as Apple (30.5 times expected earnings), it would have 42% upside potential. That would give the company a market capitalization of $2.88 trillion, just 19% behind Apple. If Alphabet continues its growth pattern and Apple continues its stagnation pattern, the gap could easily close over five years, allowing Alphabet to overtake Apple.
Additionally, Apple’s premium could fall to the market average, creating an effect similar to Alphabet’s rise.
I think Apple’s value is likely lower than these three companies. if Sales won’t start increasing right away. If a new product is launched and becomes a hit, these predictions may not hold true.
Alphabet executive Suzanne Frye is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Keithen Drury holds a position at Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: A long January 2026 $395 call on Microsoft and a short January 2026 $405 call on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.